Low Fertility - the Challenge of Demographic Security of Georgia

Giorgi Meladze

doi:10.52340/ggj.2023.03.02.08

Low Fertility - the Challenge of Demographic Security of Georgia

Authors

Giorgi Meladze Tbilisi State University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9116-5203

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52340/ggj.2023.03.02.08

Keywords:

Georgia, demographic security, low fertility, population

Abstract

Ensuring the demographic security of the country is an important component of the national security of the state. In recent years, among Georgia's demographic challenges, fertility issues have gained particular prominence. Based on the relevant indicators of demographic and statistical materials, the article considers the current state of fertility and its prospects. Based on the demographic and statistical materials of relevant indicators, the current situation of fertility and its prospects are considered. It is noted that fertility decline is a global phenomenon. Today, in 101 countries around the world, the total fertility rate is below the level of simple reproduction of the population (2.1). This process will continue in the future, and it will cover more countries. Georgia is in the fourth phase of the demographic transition. This phase is characterized by declining fertility and a reduction in the number of children in families. As a result of the negative events that have developed since the 1990s, the demographic system of Georgia dropped out of the natural course of development. In recent years, one of the most important elements of the natural movement of the population—fertility—has declined even more. In 2022, the crude birth rate was 11.4‰, which is the lowest rate since 2002 and significantly less than the level of simple population reproduction (15‰). The fact that only a small portion of generations born in the 1990s are now actively childbearing in Georgia complicates the issue. The fact that a small generation born in the 1990s entered the active childbearing age in Georgia complicates the issue. According to the medium variant of the 10th revision of the UN projections for 2022, by 2035, due to declining fertility, the number of children under the age of 15 will be less than the number of people aged 65 and over. This process is very dangerous for Georgia because it will worsen the functioning of the demographic system, which, without the implementation of a reasonable sociodemographic policy based on demographic security, will lead to serious social and economic problems in the future.

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Author Biography

Giorgi Meladze, Tbilisi State University

Department of Geography, I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences,

Department of Human Geography, TSU, Vakhushti Bagrationi Institute of Geography. Tbilisi, Georgia

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