RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE «PRO-EUROPEAN» REFERENDUM IN MOLDOVA: WHAT’S NEXT?

Abstract

The presidential elections on October 20 and November 3, 2024 and the referendum on amendments to the Constitution of Moldova, which should guarantee the immutability of the pro-European course of our country, turned out to be closely linked to each other. Gradually losing the former support of voters in the country, the current President M. Sandu, having set herself the task of being re-elected for a second term, on the advice of the «curator» of the Moldovan right, the German M. Sieg, decided
to hold a referendum on amending the Constitution on the same day as the presidential elections, in order to guarantee the European course of our country in the future, and at the same time to strengthen her own political position as a living symbol of the European course. However, the results of the elections and referendum caused disappointment in the camp of the ruling party in Moldova, PAS, and in M. Sandu herself, showing that her previous popular support is now a thing of the past. The changes to the Constitution were supported by a very small majority of votes, only 50.35% of the votes. In the presidential elections, also completely unexpectedly for herself personally, but not for analysts, M. Sandu initially lost to her opponent, supported by the Kremlin and
the pro-Russian party of socialists - the former Prosecutor General of Moldova A. Stoianoglo, and only thanks to the votes of the Moldovan diaspora abroad, she managed to win a more or less obvious victory, receiving 55.35% of the votes in the second round. But on the territory of Moldova itself, Sandu lost to her opponent, having secured the support of only 48.81% of the votes, and A. Stoianoglo - 51.19%. Sandu almost never analyzes the reasons for this actual defeat and tries not to mention them, with the exception of her recognition of the failure of her main reform - the justice reform, which was supposed to make this sector more efficient and contribute to increasing the people’s trust in her government. In practice, Sandu only achieved that she replaced the previous composition of the judiciary mainly with her supporters, but at the same time she was unable to increase its efficiency and
non-corruption, rather the opposite. Not a single criminal scam from past years was investigated and none of the perpetrators of such went to prison, although back in June 2019, the Minister of Economy THE CAUCASUS AND THE WORLD - International Scientific Journal КАВКАЗ И МИР - Международный научный журнал in the then government of M. Sandu, V. Brynzan, assured that he had discovered «hundreds» of such schemes. Not a single one has been made public and no one has been held accountable for complicity in them under the law. M. Sandu’s sweeping promises to «put the thieves in jail» have come to nothing. NOT A SINGLE
participant in the theft of a billion, in which representatives of three political parties (LDPM, DPM and LP) were involved at the time, has been brought to justice. Even the most scandalous figure in the current government, the «grey cardinal» of the PAS, now the Minister of Infrastructure A. Spinu, despite the discontent of many right-wing and even Western embassies accredited in Chisinau,
despite everything, continues to hold his post, actively and publicly supported by M. Sandu, who is desperately trying to keep quiet and hide the abuses he committed (she did this even on TV shows). Worse, in addition to the old ones, new criminal schemes have appeared. It is precisely because of them that Western investors are leaving Moldova - in particular, the Japanese Fujikura and the German Koroplast. It is thanks to them that new corruption scandals are happening in the country – like, for example, during the construction of the Leova-Bumbata road, where up to 9 million euros were stolen in just one deal. Huge sums were stolen as a result of the signing of the “gas deal” by then Deputy Prime Minister A. Spinu and Gazprom CEO A. Miller, when the country’s residents had to overpay enormously for the huge volume of gas they had purchased at the time for over 2 years, although the price for it on European markets was 1.5-2 times lower than the Russian one. It is also quite clear what will happen in Moldova if the government in Moldova turns into a coalition government, in which pro-Russian forces can be represented in it in one way or another. This will mean a certain warming in relations with Moscow. This is exactly what happened back in 2019-2020, when the parties that declared themselves pro-Western, including the PDS, were in coalition with the Socialists. There is no doubt that things will be different now. Moreover, even today the PDS has many hidden supporters of the Kremlin who seek to avoid serious conflicts with them or see nothing wrong with concluding large contracts with Russian businesses (or turn a blind eye to the ties between Moldovan and Russian businesses, even in the military-industrial complex). All this will cause a gradual increase in Russian-Moldovan trade and the resumption of visits by Russian and Moldovan public figures and politicians. Only the end of the war in Ukraine can seriously influence this process at this stage, since after that Moldova and Ukraine will begin preparing, with the active support of the West, to eliminate the pro- Moscow “last Balkan outpost” - the Transnistrian regime, and this will inevitably cause new serious conflicts between Moldova and Russia. So, a certain turn towards the Kremlin, which will happen in the case of the creation of the PAS/PSRM coalition, will not in any way mean that Moldova will turn into a second Georgia or, even more so, Belarus. The course towards Europe will remain, and even if less loudly than under the current government, it will continue even in this case. It will receive support from the West and thanks to this, Moldova will come to our main goal of the next decade – joining the European Union, and with it NATO.