Armenia at the crossroads: between great power ambitions and transformation into a modern state

Abstract

       After losing the 44-day war, which Armenia expected to win "with little bloodshed", or "like in the 1990s", this country is now experiencing a severe psychological and closely related political crisis. The loss of a significant part of the Karabakh occupied by Armenia caused a terrible shock and prostration in the Armenian society, from which the country has not yet recovered. Immediately after it became known about the agreement on November 9, 2020, which actually became the recognition of the Armenian surrender, despite the fact that it was already after midnight, crowds of people rushed to the building of the Government of Armenia and devastated it, beating Chairman of the Parliament A. Mirzoyan. The building's security offered no resistance. Anticipating such a reaction, the Prime Minister of Armenia N. Pashinyan, who signed the agreement of November 9, 2020, asked that the filming of the signing of this humiliating document for Armenians not be conducted, and, secretly returning to Armenia, hid in a bunker for several days. False fictions immediately spread among the Armenians that the Armenian army lost not to Azerbaijan, but to “mercenaries” and “terrorist groups from Syria”, and Azerbaijani soldiers only “taken pictures” with them. Now Armenia is increasingly counting on external support. Both Russia (the pro-Russian forces in Armenia have significantly increased after the defeat in the war), and the United States, since the democratic administration of D. Biden has already promised to support Armenia. The government of N. Pashinyan also hopes for the normalization of relations with Turkey, while balancing between cooperation with the countries of the West and the Russian Federation[6].  Under pressure from the opposition, the Parliament, in which the majority supporters of Prime Minister N. Pashinyan (“My Step” bloc), was forced to agree to the abolition on March 24, 2021 of the martial law introduced on September 27, 2020, with the outbreak of war, which Pashinyan had planned to extended until July 11, 2021. N. Pashinyan, who stubbornly resisted for several months, failed to dismiss his main opponent in the army, Chief of the General Staff O. Gasparyan, finally agreed to holding early elections, which were held on June 20, 2021[7].  However, contrary to the hopes of the pro-Russian opposition, which believed that the defeat of the Armenian army in the war would alienate voters from N. Pashinyan, whom they called a "traitor", this did not happen. The My Step party, which was created and headed by Pashinyan, won again, receiving 53.92% of the vote in the elections and 71 mandates out of 107. The main opposition bloc, Armenia, led by ex-president of Armenia R. Kocharyan, received only 21.04% of the votes and 29 mandates. Another moderate opposition party, “I have the honor”, led by A. Vanetsyan and A. Sargsyan, received 5.23% of the vote and 7 mandates [8].  Thus, N. Pashinyan managed to retain power, putting the opposition, which was counting on a decisive victory, in a difficult position. For some time, its representatives even thought of giving up their mandates in order to protest against alleged "falsifications" and challenged the election results in the Constitutional Court. But, as expected, they lost, took their parliamentary mandates and began to take part in the work of the new legislative body. The parliamentary majority re-elected N. Pashinyan as Prime Minister and he was approved in office by President A. Sargsyan[  In fact, the situation in the country is moving into an ever greater, and perhaps in the not too distant future, a very bloody stalemate. The continuation of a large-scale confrontation with the authorities can lead, in the face of the growing bitterness of the side, to large-scale massacres and numerous casualties. The government of N. Pashinyan and the My Step parliamentary faction refuse to consider the possible resignation of the cabinet (and even more so the dissolution of the Parliament itself), and the cession of power to the opposition, as this would only worsen the situation - after all, the parliamentary majority retains My Step and the transfer of the Government into the hands of the opposition under these conditions would lead to blocking the work of the cabinet. No matter how humiliating and painful it may be for the Armenian jingoistic patriots and chauvinists, it is the Government of N. Pashinyan who is today able to peacefully resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani problem, agreeing to sign a peace treaty and recognize Karabakh as a result of the delimitation of the borders behind Azerbaijan. Despite a new heavy shock for fans of Armenian territorial claims against other states, this will eventually stabilize the situation in the country and gradually allow Armenia to move towards normal progressive socio-economic development, giving it a chance to become a modern state. The forcible removal of Pashinyan or his voluntary resignation, if it takes place, in reality will not give anything. The Azerbaijani leadership, using a significant military advantage, can put the new authorities before a choice - either voluntarily surrender the rest of Karabakh, or it will be taken by force, and, undoubtedly, will do this at the first opportunity. Now, after the successful 2020 war, in which Armenia suffered a heavy defeat, this scenario is more than likely. Time will tell whether the Armenian politicians and society, which are on the verge of a catastrophe, will be able to understand this in time.