PROGNOSTIC MODELS OF THE PROBABILITY OF FINANCIAL BANKRUPTCY OF THE COMPANY
Keywords:bankruptcy, bankruptcy models, forecasting, Reliability of bankruptcy models
In the article - "Prognostic models of the probability of financial bankruptcy of the company" - on the example of conditional figures of the hypothetical company's work, calculations are made to determine the probability of its bankruptcy in the next 1-2 years. Calculations are made by Altman, Fulmer, Bever and Saifulin-Kadikov models of science. The mentioned models differ from each other in the number of indicators used in them and the values of the constants. Many models do not use constants at all. The calculations showed conflicting results. The research conducted with the models of Altman and Saifulin-Kadikov showed that the company is not expected to go bankrupt, while the models of Many and Fulmer detected the danger of bankruptcy. The article concludes that the practical suitability of the mentioned models cannot be unambiguously confirmed, and therefore financiers need to work on creating a more perfect model.
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